Tilray Inc Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| TLRY Stock | CAD 1.69 0.02 1.17% |
Tilray | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Tilray Inc Company odds of distress Analysis
Tilray's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Tilray Probability Of Bankruptcy | Over 61% |
Most of Tilray's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Tilray Inc is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Tilray probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Tilray odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Tilray Inc financial health.
Tilray Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Tilray is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Tilray Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Tilray's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Tilray's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Tilray's interrelated accounts and indicators.
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The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Tilray Inc has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 61%. This is 40.91% higher than that of the Pharmaceuticals sector and significantly higher than that of the Health Care industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all Canada stocks is 53.15% lower than that of the firm.
Tilray Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Tilray's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Tilray could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tilray by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Tilray is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among its peers.
Tilray Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | (0.0339) | (0.0558) | (0.0797) | (0.34) | (0.058) | (0.15) | |
| Asset Turnover | 0.22 | 0.0852 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.096 | |
| Gross Profit Margin | 0.35 | 0.24 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 0.42 | |
| Net Debt | (58.1M) | 450.2M | 207.9M | 383.5M | 159.0M | 85.9M | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 122.8M | 401.2M | 280.3M | 433.0M | 299.2M | 314.1M | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 353.1M | 1.2B | 728.0M | 544.3M | 592.9M | 535.8M | |
| Total Assets | 1.8B | 6.0B | 5.4B | 4.3B | 4.3B | 4.6B | |
| Total Current Assets | 651.2M | 883.6M | 803.5M | 773.0M | 677.7M | 396.4M | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | (96.4M) | (44.7M) | (177.3M) | 7.9M | (30.9M) | (32.5M) |
Tilray Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | -0.0584 | ||||
| Return On Asset | -0.014 | ||||
| Profit Margin | (0.26) % | ||||
| Operating Margin | (0.15) % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 1.68 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 903.29 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.67 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 12.10 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 6.21 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 8.23 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 0.31 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 1.90 X | ||||
| Revenue | 788.94 M | ||||
| Gross Profit | 116.82 M | ||||
| EBITDA | (72.84 M) | ||||
| Net Income | (222.4 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 490.64 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 0.80 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 387.32 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 0.14 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 3.33 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 3.97 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | (30.91 M) | ||||
| Short Ratio | 5.20 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (0.38) X | ||||
| Target Price | 2.71 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 2.65 K | ||||
| Beta | 2.19 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 1.54 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 4.34 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (2.66 B) | ||||
| Working Capital | 378.54 M | ||||
| Net Asset | 4.34 B |
About Tilray Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Tilray Inc's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Tilray using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Tilray Inc based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Pair Trading with Tilray
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Tilray position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Tilray will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Tilray Stock
Moving against Tilray Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Tilray could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Tilray when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Tilray - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Tilray Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Tilray is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Tilray moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Tilray Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Tilray can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Tilray Inc. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.