Aris Gold Corp Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| ARIS Stock | CAD 5.52 0.31 5.32% |
Aris | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Aris Gold Corp Company odds of distress Analysis
Aris Gold's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Aris Gold Probability Of Bankruptcy | Over 56% |
Most of Aris Gold's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Aris Gold Corp is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Aris Gold probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Aris Gold odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Aris Gold Corp financial health.
Aris Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Aris Gold is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Aris Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Aris Gold's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Aris Gold's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Aris Gold's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Aris Gold Corp has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 56%. This is 26.3% higher than that of the Metals & Mining sector and significantly higher than that of the Materials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all Canada stocks is 40.6% lower than that of the firm.
Aris Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Aris Gold's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Aris Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aris Gold by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Aris Gold is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among its peers.
Aris Gold Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | (0.36) | (0.0424) | 0.19 | 5.01E-4 | 0.008441 | 0.008863 | |
| Gross Profit Margin | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.42 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.43 | |
| Net Debt | 8.0M | 22.6M | (5.5M) | 136.6M | 188.3M | 197.7M | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 86.8M | 178.4M | 64.3M | 145.3M | 134.2M | 140.9M | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 154.9M | 275.9M | 455.5M | 595.5M | 594.0M | 623.7M | |
| Total Assets | 359.4M | 650.6M | 998.4M | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.4B | |
| Total Current Assets | 136.9M | 328.7M | 382.0M | 378.2M | 289.1M | 303.6M | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 103.3M | 136.4M | 80.6M | 77.0M | 104.7M | 109.9M |
Aris Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | -0.0021 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 0.0422 | ||||
| Profit Margin | (0) % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.24 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 1.41 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 170.9 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 4.84 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 56.77 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 5.21 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 6.20 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 0.82 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 2.06 X | ||||
| Revenue | 447.67 M | ||||
| Gross Profit | 204.14 M | ||||
| EBITDA | 164.41 M | ||||
| Net Income | 11.42 M | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 299.46 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 2.72 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 382.93 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 0.62 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 6.20 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 4.76 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 104.7 M | ||||
| Short Ratio | 9.73 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (0.04) X | ||||
| Target Price | 11.07 | ||||
| Beta | 1.61 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 996.35 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 1.35 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (215.44 M) | ||||
| Working Capital | 154.89 M | ||||
| Net Asset | 1.35 B | ||||
| Last Dividend Paid | 0.001 |
About Aris Gold Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Aris Gold Corp's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Aris Gold using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Aris Gold Corp based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Pair Trading with Aris Gold
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aris Gold position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aris Gold will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Aris Stock
Moving against Aris Stock
| 0.83 | FFH | Fairfax Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | WCN | Waste Connections | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | CSU | Constellation Software | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | FSV | FirstService Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | IFC | Intact Financial | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aris Gold could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aris Gold when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aris Gold - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aris Gold Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Aris Gold is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aris Gold moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aris Gold Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aris Gold can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Aris Stock
Aris Gold financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aris Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aris with respect to the benefits of owning Aris Gold security.