Valvoline Stock Price Prediction
| VVV Stock | USD 37.77 0.08 0.21% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
40
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.403 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.321 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.5259 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.7975 | Wall Street Target Price 43.75 |
Using Valvoline hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Valvoline from the perspective of Valvoline response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Valvoline to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Valvoline because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Valvoline after-hype prediction price | USD 37.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Valvoline |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Valvoline's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Valvoline After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Valvoline at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Valvoline or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Valvoline, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Valvoline Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Valvoline's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Valvoline's historical news coverage. Valvoline's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 35.94 and 39.52, respectively. We have considered Valvoline's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Valvoline is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Valvoline is based on 3 months time horizon.
Valvoline Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Valvoline is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Valvoline backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Valvoline, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.79 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
37.77 | 37.73 | 0.11 |
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Valvoline Hype Timeline
On the 17th of December 2024 Valvoline is traded for 37.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Valvoline is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 37.73. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Valvoline is about 594.68%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.74. About 99.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.1. Valvoline last dividend was issued on the 1st of December 2022. The entity had 1:20 split on the August 29, 2011. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Valvoline Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Valvoline Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Valvoline's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Valvoline's future price movements. Getting to know how Valvoline's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Valvoline may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CSAN | Cosan SA ADR | 0.26 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 4.06 | (5.12) | 16.10 | |
| DK | Delek Energy | (0.05) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.66 | (4.53) | 16.10 | |
| CAPL | Crossamerica Partners LP | (0.05) | 9 per month | 1.14 | 0.02 | 2.88 | (2.03) | 6.12 | |
| PARR | Par Pacific Holdings | 0.92 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.42 | (5.78) | 15.43 | |
| PBF | PBF Energy | 0.21 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.77 | (4.85) | 15.94 | |
| CVI | CVR Energy | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.62 | (5.26) | 28.93 | |
| VLO | Valero Energy | (3.20) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.75 | (3.15) | 11.46 | |
| MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corp | (0.86) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.51 | (3.74) | 13.39 | |
| SGU | Star Gas Partners | (0.31) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.03 | (2.55) | 9.70 | |
| UGP | Ultrapar Participacoes SA | 0.03 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 3.15 | (5.41) | 11.56 |
Valvoline Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Valvoline price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Valvoline using various technical indicators. When you analyze Valvoline charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Valvoline Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Valvoline stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Valvoline, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Valvoline based on analysis of Valvoline hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Valvoline's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Valvoline's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0197 | 0.004184 | 0.004812 | 0.004571 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.67 | 3.61 | 3.36 | 2.39 |
Story Coverage note for Valvoline
The number of cover stories for Valvoline depends on current market conditions and Valvoline's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Valvoline is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Valvoline's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Valvoline Short Properties
Valvoline's future price predictability will typically decrease when Valvoline's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Valvoline often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Valvoline's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valvoline's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 131 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 68.3 M |
Additional Tools for Valvoline Stock Analysis
When running Valvoline's price analysis, check to measure Valvoline's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valvoline is operating at the current time. Most of Valvoline's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valvoline's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valvoline's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valvoline to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.