Nestle SA Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

NSRGY Stock  USD 82.35  0.01  0.01%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nestle SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 78.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.02. Nestle Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Nestle SA is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Nestle SA ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Nestle SA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nestle SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 78.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.89, mean absolute percentage error of 1.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.02.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nestle Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nestle SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Nestle SA Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Nestle SA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Nestle SA's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nestle SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 77.86 and 79.70, respectively. We have considered Nestle SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
82.35
78.78
Expected Value
79.70
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nestle SA pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nestle SA pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.997
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8875
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0099
SAESum of the absolute errors55.0236
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Nestle SA ADR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Nestle SA. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Nestle SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nestle SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
81.4582.3583.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
71.0771.9790.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nestle SA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nestle SA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nestle SA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Nestle SA ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for Nestle SA

For every potential investor in Nestle, whether a beginner or expert, Nestle SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nestle Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nestle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nestle SA's price trends.

Nestle SA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nestle SA pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nestle SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nestle SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Nestle SA ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nestle SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nestle SA's current price.

Nestle SA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nestle SA pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nestle SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nestle SA pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Nestle SA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Nestle SA Risk Indicators

The analysis of Nestle SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nestle SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nestle pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Nestle Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Nestle SA's price analysis, check to measure Nestle SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nestle SA is operating at the current time. Most of Nestle SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nestle SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nestle SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nestle SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.