Marathon Oil Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MRODelisted Stock | USD 28.55 0.56 1.92% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marathon Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 27.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.03. Marathon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Marathon |
Marathon Oil Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marathon Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 27.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marathon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marathon Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Marathon Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Marathon Oil | Marathon Oil Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Marathon Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Marathon Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marathon Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.05 and 29.54, respectively. We have considered Marathon Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marathon Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marathon Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0467 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4431 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0162 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.027 |
Predictive Modules for Marathon Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marathon Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Marathon Oil
For every potential investor in Marathon, whether a beginner or expert, Marathon Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marathon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marathon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marathon Oil's price trends.Marathon Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marathon Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marathon Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marathon Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Marathon Oil Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Marathon Oil's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Marathon Oil's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Marathon Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marathon Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marathon Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marathon Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marathon Oil entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Marathon Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Marathon Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marathon Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marathon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Variance | 3.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.61 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.46 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.35) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Marathon Oil
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Marathon Oil position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Marathon Oil will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Marathon Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Marathon Oil could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Marathon Oil when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Marathon Oil - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Marathon Oil to buy it.
The correlation of Marathon Oil is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Marathon Oil moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Marathon Oil moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Marathon Oil can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marathon Oil to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Other Consideration for investing in Marathon Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Marathon Oil check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Marathon Oil's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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