Moncler SpA Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MOV Stock | EUR 51.00 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Moncler SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 48.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.34. Moncler Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Moncler SpA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Moncler SpA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Moncler SpA on the next trading day is expected to be 48.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78, mean absolute percentage error of 1.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Moncler Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Moncler SpA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Moncler SpA Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Moncler SpA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Moncler SpA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.11 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7761 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0155 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 47.3435 |
Predictive Modules for Moncler SpA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moncler SpA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Moncler SpA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Moncler SpA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Moncler SpA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Moncler SpA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Moncler SpA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Moncler SpA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Moncler SpA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Moncler SpA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Moncler SpA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Moncler SpA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Moncler SpA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moncler SpA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting moncler stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Variance | 5.47 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.81 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.94) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Moncler Stock
Moncler SpA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Moncler Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Moncler with respect to the benefits of owning Moncler SpA security.