HNX 30 Index Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HNX30 Index | 502.01 5.71 1.15% |
HNX 30 Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of HNX 30 on the next trading day is expected to be 490.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.64, mean absolute percentage error of 30.85, and the sum of the absolute errors of 282.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HNX Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HNX 30's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
HNX 30 Index Forecast Pattern
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HNX 30 index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HNX 30 index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.5396 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.6366 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0097 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 282.8344 |
Predictive Modules for HNX 30
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as HNX 30. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.HNX 30 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with HNX 30 index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of HNX 30 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing HNX 30 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HNX 30 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how HNX 30 index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading HNX 30 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying HNX 30 index market strength indicators, traders can identify HNX 30 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
HNX 30 Risk Indicators
The analysis of HNX 30's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in HNX 30's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hnx index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6672 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6836 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9062 | |||
| Variance | 0.8212 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6893 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4672 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.73) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.