Biogen Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

BIIB Stock  USD 139.44  0.54  0.39%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Biogen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 137.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 148.10. Biogen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Biogen stock prices and determine the direction of Biogen Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Biogen's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Biogen's Inventory Turnover is projected to increase slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 12.39, whereas Payables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 5.62. . The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 278.8 M, whereas Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is forecasted to decline to about 2 B.

Open Interest Against 2025-06-20 Biogen Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Biogen's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Biogen's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Biogen stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Biogen's open interest, investors have to compare it to Biogen's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Biogen is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Biogen. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Biogen Cash Forecast

Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Biogen's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1985-12-31
Previous Quarter
1.7 B
Current Value
2.4 B
Quarterly Volatility
930.7 M
 
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Covid
A naive forecasting model for Biogen is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Biogen Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Biogen Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2025

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Biogen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 137.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.43, mean absolute percentage error of 9.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 148.10.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Biogen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Biogen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Biogen Stock Forecast Pattern

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Biogen Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Biogen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Biogen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 135.90 and 139.30, respectively. We have considered Biogen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
139.44
135.90
Downside
137.60
Expected Value
139.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Biogen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Biogen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.3345
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.4279
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0169
SAESum of the absolute errors148.1038
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Biogen Inc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Biogen. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Biogen

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Biogen Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
138.05139.75141.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
125.50160.43162.13
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
135.00144.19153.38
Details
34 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
210.91231.77257.26
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Biogen

For every potential investor in Biogen, whether a beginner or expert, Biogen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Biogen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Biogen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Biogen's price trends.

Biogen Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Biogen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Biogen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Biogen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Biogen Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Biogen's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Biogen's current price.

Biogen Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Biogen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Biogen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Biogen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Biogen Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Biogen Risk Indicators

The analysis of Biogen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Biogen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting biogen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Biogen Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Biogen's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Biogen Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Biogen Inc Stock:
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Biogen. If investors know Biogen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Biogen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.063
Earnings Share
11.18
Revenue Per Share
66.455
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.029
Return On Assets
0.0529
The market value of Biogen Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Biogen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Biogen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Biogen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Biogen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Biogen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Biogen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Biogen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Biogen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.