Equity Growth Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

BEQGX Fund  USD 34.92  0.17  0.48%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Equity Growth Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 35.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.14. Equity Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Equity Growth is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Equity Growth Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Equity Growth Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Equity Growth Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 35.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Equity Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Equity Growth's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Equity Growth Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Equity GrowthEquity Growth Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Equity Growth Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Equity Growth's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Equity Growth's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.51 and 35.85, respectively. We have considered Equity Growth's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
34.92
35.18
Expected Value
35.85
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Equity Growth mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Equity Growth mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.7712
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2319
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.007
SAESum of the absolute errors14.1447
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Equity Growth Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Equity Growth. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Equity Growth

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Equity Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
34.2534.9235.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
33.8834.5535.22
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Equity Growth. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Equity Growth's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Equity Growth's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Equity Growth.

Other Forecasting Options for Equity Growth

For every potential investor in Equity, whether a beginner or expert, Equity Growth's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Equity Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Equity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Equity Growth's price trends.

Equity Growth Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Equity Growth mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Equity Growth could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Equity Growth by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Equity Growth Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Equity Growth's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Equity Growth's current price.

Equity Growth Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Equity Growth mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Equity Growth shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Equity Growth mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Equity Growth Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Equity Growth Risk Indicators

The analysis of Equity Growth's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Equity Growth's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting equity mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Equity Mutual Fund

Equity Growth financial ratios help investors to determine whether Equity Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Equity with respect to the benefits of owning Equity Growth security.
Headlines Timeline
Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios