Aurora Cannabis Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ACB Stock  CAD 6.16  0.01  0.16%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aurora Cannabis on the next trading day is expected to be 5.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.59. Aurora Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Aurora Cannabis' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aurora Cannabis' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aurora Cannabis fundamentals over time.
  
As of the 23rd of December 2024, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.34, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 0.71. . As of the 23rd of December 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 24.8 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to drop to about (188.1 M).
A naive forecasting model for Aurora Cannabis is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Aurora Cannabis value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Aurora Cannabis Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aurora Cannabis on the next trading day is expected to be 5.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.59.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aurora Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aurora Cannabis' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aurora Cannabis Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Aurora CannabisAurora Cannabis Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Aurora Cannabis Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aurora Cannabis' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aurora Cannabis' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.52 and 9.06, respectively. We have considered Aurora Cannabis' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.16
5.29
Expected Value
9.06
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aurora Cannabis stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aurora Cannabis stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.8107
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2555
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0374
SAESum of the absolute errors15.5879
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Aurora Cannabis. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Aurora Cannabis. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Aurora Cannabis

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurora Cannabis. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.406.179.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.825.599.36
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.13-0.050.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Aurora Cannabis

For every potential investor in Aurora, whether a beginner or expert, Aurora Cannabis' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aurora Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aurora. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aurora Cannabis' price trends.

Aurora Cannabis Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aurora Cannabis stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aurora Cannabis could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aurora Cannabis by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aurora Cannabis Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aurora Cannabis' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aurora Cannabis' current price.

Aurora Cannabis Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aurora Cannabis stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aurora Cannabis shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aurora Cannabis stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aurora Cannabis entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aurora Cannabis Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aurora Cannabis' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aurora Cannabis' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aurora stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Aurora Cannabis

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aurora Cannabis position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aurora Cannabis will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Aurora Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aurora Cannabis could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aurora Cannabis when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aurora Cannabis - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aurora Cannabis to buy it.
The correlation of Aurora Cannabis is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aurora Cannabis moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aurora Cannabis moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aurora Cannabis can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Aurora Cannabis offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Aurora Cannabis' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Aurora Cannabis Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Aurora Cannabis Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aurora Cannabis to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Aurora Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aurora Cannabis guide.
You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aurora Cannabis' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aurora Cannabis is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aurora Cannabis' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.