CREDIT AGRICOLE (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 17.94
| XCA Stock | EUR 14.17 0.16 1.14% |
CREDIT |
CREDIT AGRICOLE Target Price Odds to finish over 17.94
The tendency of CREDIT Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over € 17.94 or more in 90 days |
| 14.17 | 90 days | 17.94 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CREDIT AGRICOLE to move over € 17.94 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This CREDIT AGRICOLE probability density function shows the probability of CREDIT Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CREDIT AGRICOLE price to stay between its current price of € 14.17 and € 17.94 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.74 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CREDIT AGRICOLE has a beta of -0.0988. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding CREDIT AGRICOLE are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, CREDIT AGRICOLE is likely to outperform the market. Additionally CREDIT AGRICOLE has an alpha of 0.0314, implying that it can generate a 0.0314 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). CREDIT AGRICOLE Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CREDIT AGRICOLE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CREDIT AGRICOLE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CREDIT AGRICOLE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CREDIT AGRICOLE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CREDIT AGRICOLE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CREDIT AGRICOLE, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CREDIT AGRICOLE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.52 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
CREDIT AGRICOLE Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CREDIT Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CREDIT AGRICOLE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CREDIT AGRICOLE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3 B | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1023 |
CREDIT AGRICOLE Technical Analysis
CREDIT AGRICOLE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CREDIT Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CREDIT AGRICOLE. In general, you should focus on analyzing CREDIT Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CREDIT AGRICOLE Predictive Forecast Models
CREDIT AGRICOLE's time-series forecasting models is one of many CREDIT AGRICOLE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CREDIT AGRICOLE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CREDIT AGRICOLE in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CREDIT AGRICOLE's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CREDIT AGRICOLE options trading.
Additional Tools for CREDIT Stock Analysis
When running CREDIT AGRICOLE's price analysis, check to measure CREDIT AGRICOLE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CREDIT AGRICOLE is operating at the current time. Most of CREDIT AGRICOLE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CREDIT AGRICOLE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CREDIT AGRICOLE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CREDIT AGRICOLE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.