Webster Financial (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 48.68
| WED Stock | EUR 56.50 0.50 0.89% |
Webster |
Webster Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 48.68
The tendency of Webster Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 48.68 or more in 90 days |
| 56.50 | 90 days | 48.68 | about 50.28 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Webster Financial to drop to € 48.68 or more in 90 days from now is about 50.28 (This Webster Financial probability density function shows the probability of Webster Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Webster Financial price to stay between € 48.68 and its current price of €56.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 36.35 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.55 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Webster Financial will likely underperform. Additionally Webster Financial has an alpha of 0.448, implying that it can generate a 0.45 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Webster Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Webster Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Webster Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Webster Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Webster Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Webster Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Webster Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Webster Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.45 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.55 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
Webster Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Webster Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Webster Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Webster Financial appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Over 88.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Webster Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Webster Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Webster Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Webster Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 174 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 1.5 | |
| Shares Float | 172 M |
Webster Financial Technical Analysis
Webster Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Webster Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Webster Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Webster Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Webster Financial Predictive Forecast Models
Webster Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Webster Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Webster Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Webster Financial
Checking the ongoing alerts about Webster Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Webster Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Webster Financial appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Over 88.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Webster Stock
When determining whether Webster Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze Webster Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Webster Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Webster Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Webster Financial Backtesting, Webster Financial Valuation, Webster Financial Correlation, Webster Financial Hype Analysis, Webster Financial Volatility, Webster Financial History as well as Webster Financial Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Webster Stock please use our How to Invest in Webster Financial guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.