Vanguard Federal Money Fund Probability of Future Money Market Fund Price Finishing Over 1.38
| VMFXX Fund | USD 1.00 0.00 0.00% |
Vanguard |
Vanguard Federal Target Price Odds to finish over 1.38
The tendency of Vanguard Money Market Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 1.38 or more in 90 days |
| 1.00 | 90 days | 1.38 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard Federal to move over $ 1.38 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Vanguard Federal Money probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Money Market Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vanguard Federal Money price to stay between its current price of $ 1.00 and $ 1.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 50.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Vanguard Federal Money has a beta of -0.0018. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Vanguard Federal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Vanguard Federal Money is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Vanguard Federal Money has an alpha of 0.0055, implying that it can generate a 0.005467 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Vanguard Federal Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vanguard Federal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Federal Money. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the money market fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the money market fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Federal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Federal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard Federal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard Federal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard Federal Money, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard Federal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0018 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.68 |
Vanguard Federal Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vanguard Federal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vanguard Federal Money can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vanguard Federal has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| The fund keeps all of the net assets in exotic instruments |
Vanguard Federal Technical Analysis
Vanguard Federal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vanguard Money Market Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vanguard Federal Money. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vanguard Money Market Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vanguard Federal Predictive Forecast Models
Vanguard Federal's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vanguard Federal's money market fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vanguard Federal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the money market fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vanguard Federal Money
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vanguard Federal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vanguard Federal Money help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vanguard Federal has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| The fund keeps all of the net assets in exotic instruments |
Other Information on Investing in Vanguard Money Market Fund
Vanguard Federal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vanguard Money Market Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vanguard with respect to the benefits of owning Vanguard Federal security.
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