Vista Oil Gas Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 53.37
| VIST Stock | USD 55.79 1.65 2.87% |
Vista |
Vista Oil Target Price Odds to finish below 53.37
The tendency of Vista Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 53.37 or more in 90 days |
| 55.79 | 90 days | 53.37 | about 88.4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vista Oil to drop to $ 53.37 or more in 90 days from now is about 88.4 (This Vista Oil Gas probability density function shows the probability of Vista Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vista Oil Gas price to stay between $ 53.37 and its current price of $55.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.06 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Vista Oil Gas has a beta of -0.0149. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Vista Oil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Vista Oil Gas is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Vista Oil Gas has an alpha of 0.2662, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Vista Oil Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Vista Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vista Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vista Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vista Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vista Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vista Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vista Oil Gas, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vista Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Vista Oil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vista Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vista Oil Gas can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vista Oil Gas currently holds 686.52 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.74, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Vista Oil Gas has a current ratio of 0.52, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Vista Oil's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Vista Oil Gas has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 62.0% of Vista Oil outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Vista Energy SAB de CV Shares Up 4.45 percent on Dec 9 |
Vista Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vista Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vista Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vista Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 99.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 213.3 M |
Vista Oil Technical Analysis
Vista Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vista Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vista Oil Gas. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vista Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vista Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Vista Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vista Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vista Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vista Oil Gas
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vista Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vista Oil Gas help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vista Oil Gas currently holds 686.52 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.74, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Vista Oil Gas has a current ratio of 0.52, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Vista Oil's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Vista Oil Gas has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 62.0% of Vista Oil outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Vista Energy SAB de CV Shares Up 4.45 percent on Dec 9 |
Additional Tools for Vista Stock Analysis
When running Vista Oil's price analysis, check to measure Vista Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vista Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Vista Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vista Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vista Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vista Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.