Vail Resorts (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 184.02
| VAI Stock | EUR 186.00 4.00 2.20% |
Vail |
Vail Resorts Target Price Odds to finish below 184.02
The tendency of Vail Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 184.02 or more in 90 days |
| 186.00 | 90 days | 184.02 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vail Resorts to drop to € 184.02 or more in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Vail Resorts probability density function shows the probability of Vail Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vail Resorts price to stay between € 184.02 and its current price of €186.0 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.22 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Vail Resorts will likely underperform. Additionally Vail Resorts has an alpha of 0.1013, implying that it can generate a 0.1 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Vail Resorts Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vail Resorts
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vail Resorts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vail Resorts Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vail Resorts is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vail Resorts' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vail Resorts, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vail Resorts within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.10 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Vail Resorts Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vail Resorts for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vail Resorts can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Vail Resorts has accumulated €2.67 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Vail Resorts has accumulated 2.67 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 71.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Vail Resorts has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Vail Resorts until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Vail Resorts' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Vail Resorts sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Vail to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Vail Resorts' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 99.0% of Vail Resorts outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Vail Resorts Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vail Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vail Resorts' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vail Resorts' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 40.3 M |
Vail Resorts Technical Analysis
Vail Resorts' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vail Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vail Resorts. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vail Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vail Resorts Predictive Forecast Models
Vail Resorts' time-series forecasting models is one of many Vail Resorts' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vail Resorts' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vail Resorts
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vail Resorts for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vail Resorts help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Vail Resorts has accumulated €2.67 Billion in debt which can lead to volatile earnings | |
| Vail Resorts has accumulated 2.67 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 71.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Vail Resorts has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Vail Resorts until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Vail Resorts' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Vail Resorts sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Vail to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Vail Resorts' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 99.0% of Vail Resorts outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Vail Stock
When determining whether Vail Resorts offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Vail Resorts' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Vail Resorts Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Vail Resorts Stock:Check out Vail Resorts Backtesting, Vail Resorts Valuation, Vail Resorts Correlation, Vail Resorts Hype Analysis, Vail Resorts Volatility, Vail Resorts History as well as Vail Resorts Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Vail Stock please use our How to Invest in Vail Resorts guide.You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.