UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 50.46

91324PEA6   79.62  18.12  29.46%   
UNITEDHEALTH's future price is the expected price of UNITEDHEALTH instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out UNITEDHEALTH Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, UNITEDHEALTH Correlation, UNITEDHEALTH Hype Analysis, UNITEDHEALTH Volatility, UNITEDHEALTH History as well as UNITEDHEALTH Performance.
  
Please specify UNITEDHEALTH's target price for which you would like UNITEDHEALTH odds to be computed.

UNITEDHEALTH Target Price Odds to finish below 50.46

The tendency of UNITEDHEALTH Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  50.46  or more in 90 days
 79.62 90 days 50.46 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UNITEDHEALTH to drop to  50.46  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC probability density function shows the probability of UNITEDHEALTH Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC price to stay between  50.46  and its current price of 79.62 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC has a beta of -0.69. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding UNITEDHEALTH are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC has an alpha of 0.27, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   UNITEDHEALTH Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for UNITEDHEALTH

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
75.2279.6384.04
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
58.6763.0887.58
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
77.6282.0386.44
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
57.7264.8071.87
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as UNITEDHEALTH. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against UNITEDHEALTH's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, UNITEDHEALTH's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC.

UNITEDHEALTH Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UNITEDHEALTH is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UNITEDHEALTH's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UNITEDHEALTH within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.27
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.69
σ
Overall volatility
3.14
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

UNITEDHEALTH Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of UNITEDHEALTH for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
UNITEDHEALTH had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Why Fast-paced Mover Victorias Secret Is a Great Choice for Value Investors

UNITEDHEALTH Technical Analysis

UNITEDHEALTH's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UNITEDHEALTH Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC. In general, you should focus on analyzing UNITEDHEALTH Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

UNITEDHEALTH Predictive Forecast Models

UNITEDHEALTH's time-series forecasting models is one of many UNITEDHEALTH's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UNITEDHEALTH's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC

Checking the ongoing alerts about UNITEDHEALTH for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
UNITEDHEALTH had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Why Fast-paced Mover Victorias Secret Is a Great Choice for Value Investors

Other Information on Investing in UNITEDHEALTH Bond

UNITEDHEALTH financial ratios help investors to determine whether UNITEDHEALTH Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in UNITEDHEALTH with respect to the benefits of owning UNITEDHEALTH security.