TIME WARNER INC Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 99.55
| 887315BN8 | 105.17 1.72 1.66% |
887315BN8 |
887315BN8 Target Price Odds to finish below 99.55
The tendency of 887315BN8 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 99.55 or more in 90 days |
| 105.17 | 90 days | 99.55 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 887315BN8 to drop to 99.55 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This TIME WARNER INC probability density function shows the probability of 887315BN8 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TIME WARNER INC price to stay between 99.55 and its current price of 105.17 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 96.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon TIME WARNER INC has a beta of -0.17. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 887315BN8 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, TIME WARNER INC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally TIME WARNER INC has an alpha of 0.0271, implying that it can generate a 0.0271 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). 887315BN8 Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for 887315BN8
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TIME WARNER INC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.887315BN8 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 887315BN8 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 887315BN8's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TIME WARNER INC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 887315BN8 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
887315BN8 Technical Analysis
887315BN8's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 887315BN8 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TIME WARNER INC. In general, you should focus on analyzing 887315BN8 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
887315BN8 Predictive Forecast Models
887315BN8's time-series forecasting models is one of many 887315BN8's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 887315BN8's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 887315BN8 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 887315BN8's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 887315BN8 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in 887315BN8 Bond
887315BN8 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 887315BN8 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 887315BN8 with respect to the benefits of owning 887315BN8 security.