KEY 47 26 JAN 26 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 97.32
| 49327M3G7 | 100.10 0.19 0.19% |
49327M3G7 |
49327M3G7 Target Price Odds to finish below 97.32
The tendency of 49327M3G7 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 97.32 or more in 90 days |
| 100.10 | 90 days | 97.32 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 49327M3G7 to drop to 97.32 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This KEY 47 26 JAN 26 probability density function shows the probability of 49327M3G7 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of KEY 47 26 price to stay between 97.32 and its current price of 100.1 at the end of the 90-day period is about 69.27 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon KEY 47 26 JAN 26 has a beta of -0.37. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding 49327M3G7 are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, KEY 47 26 JAN 26 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally KEY 47 26 JAN 26 has an alpha of 0.018, implying that it can generate a 0.018 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). 49327M3G7 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 49327M3G7
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KEY 47 26. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.49327M3G7 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 49327M3G7 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 49327M3G7's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold KEY 47 26 JAN 26, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 49327M3G7 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.37 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0072 |
49327M3G7 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 49327M3G7 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for KEY 47 26 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| KEY 47 26 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: JELD-WEN Announces Purchase Agreement for Towanda, PA Facility as a Result of Court-Ordered ... |
49327M3G7 Technical Analysis
49327M3G7's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 49327M3G7 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of KEY 47 26 JAN 26. In general, you should focus on analyzing 49327M3G7 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
49327M3G7 Predictive Forecast Models
49327M3G7's time-series forecasting models is one of many 49327M3G7's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 49327M3G7's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about KEY 47 26
Checking the ongoing alerts about 49327M3G7 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for KEY 47 26 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| KEY 47 26 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: JELD-WEN Announces Purchase Agreement for Towanda, PA Facility as a Result of Court-Ordered ... |
Other Information on Investing in 49327M3G7 Bond
49327M3G7 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 49327M3G7 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 49327M3G7 with respect to the benefits of owning 49327M3G7 security.