NOVHOL 6625 15 APR 29 Chance of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 98.06
| 18972EAA3 | 99.42 0.69 0.69% |
NOVHOL |
NOVHOL Target Price Odds to finish below 98.06
The tendency of NOVHOL Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 98.06 or more in 90 days |
| 99.42 | 90 days | 98.06 | about 6.13 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NOVHOL to drop to 98.06 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.13 (This NOVHOL 6625 15 APR 29 probability density function shows the probability of NOVHOL Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of NOVHOL 6625 15 price to stay between 98.06 and its current price of 99.42 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.42 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NOVHOL 6625 15 APR 29 has a beta of -0.32. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding NOVHOL are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, NOVHOL 6625 15 APR 29 is likely to outperform the market. Additionally NOVHOL 6625 15 APR 29 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. NOVHOL Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NOVHOL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NOVHOL 6625 15. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.NOVHOL Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NOVHOL is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NOVHOL's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NOVHOL 6625 15 APR 29, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NOVHOL within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.50 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
NOVHOL Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NOVHOL for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NOVHOL 6625 15 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| NOVHOL 6625 15 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from fool.com: Here Are All 5 Stocks Ive Bought in December |
NOVHOL Technical Analysis
NOVHOL's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NOVHOL Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NOVHOL 6625 15 APR 29. In general, you should focus on analyzing NOVHOL Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NOVHOL Predictive Forecast Models
NOVHOL's time-series forecasting models is one of many NOVHOL's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NOVHOL's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NOVHOL 6625 15
Checking the ongoing alerts about NOVHOL for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NOVHOL 6625 15 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| NOVHOL 6625 15 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Latest headline from fool.com: Here Are All 5 Stocks Ive Bought in December |
Other Information on Investing in NOVHOL Bond
NOVHOL financial ratios help investors to determine whether NOVHOL Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in NOVHOL with respect to the benefits of owning NOVHOL security.