AOL TIME WARNER Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 107.22
| 00184AAG0 | 109.08 0.20 0.18% |
00184AAG0 |
00184AAG0 Target Price Odds to finish below 107.22
The tendency of 00184AAG0 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 107.22 or more in 90 days |
| 109.08 | 90 days | 107.22 | about 21.87 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 00184AAG0 to drop to 107.22 or more in 90 days from now is about 21.87 (This AOL TIME WARNER probability density function shows the probability of 00184AAG0 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AOL TIME WARNER price to stay between 107.22 and its current price of 109.08 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.69 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 00184AAG0 has a beta of 0.0159. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 00184AAG0 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AOL TIME WARNER will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AOL TIME WARNER has an alpha of 0.0383, implying that it can generate a 0.0383 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). 00184AAG0 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 00184AAG0
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AOL TIME WARNER. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.00184AAG0 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 00184AAG0 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 00184AAG0's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AOL TIME WARNER, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 00184AAG0 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
00184AAG0 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 00184AAG0 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AOL TIME WARNER can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AOL TIME WARNER generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
00184AAG0 Technical Analysis
00184AAG0's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 00184AAG0 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AOL TIME WARNER. In general, you should focus on analyzing 00184AAG0 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
00184AAG0 Predictive Forecast Models
00184AAG0's time-series forecasting models is one of many 00184AAG0's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 00184AAG0's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AOL TIME WARNER
Checking the ongoing alerts about 00184AAG0 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AOL TIME WARNER help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AOL TIME WARNER generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in 00184AAG0 Bond
00184AAG0 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 00184AAG0 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 00184AAG0 with respect to the benefits of owning 00184AAG0 security.