United Parcel (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 39.81
| UPSS34 Stock | BRL 48.40 0.10 0.21% |
United |
United Parcel Target Price Odds to finish below 39.81
The tendency of United Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 39.81 or more in 90 days |
| 48.40 | 90 days | 39.81 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of United Parcel to drop to R$ 39.81 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This United Parcel Service probability density function shows the probability of United Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of United Parcel Service price to stay between R$ 39.81 and its current price of R$48.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 76.91 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon United Parcel Service has a beta of -0.0198. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding United Parcel are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, United Parcel Service is likely to outperform the market. Additionally United Parcel Service has an alpha of 0.1365, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). United Parcel Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for United Parcel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Parcel Service. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.United Parcel Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. United Parcel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the United Parcel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold United Parcel Service, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of United Parcel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.90 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
United Parcel Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of United Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential United Parcel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Parcel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 864.8 M |
United Parcel Technical Analysis
United Parcel's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. United Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of United Parcel Service. In general, you should focus on analyzing United Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
United Parcel Predictive Forecast Models
United Parcel's time-series forecasting models is one of many United Parcel's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary United Parcel's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards United Parcel in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, United Parcel's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from United Parcel options trading.
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in United Stock
When determining whether United Parcel Service is a strong investment it is important to analyze United Parcel's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact United Parcel's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding United Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out United Parcel Backtesting, United Parcel Valuation, United Parcel Correlation, United Parcel Hype Analysis, United Parcel Volatility, United Parcel History as well as United Parcel Performance. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.