Ups Cdr Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 15.75
| UPS Stock | 16.88 0.01 0.06% |
UPS |
UPS CDR Target Price Odds to finish below 15.75
The tendency of UPS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 15.75 or more in 90 days |
| 16.88 | 90 days | 15.75 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UPS CDR to drop to 15.75 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This UPS CDR probability density function shows the probability of UPS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UPS CDR price to stay between 15.75 and its current price of 16.88 at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.69 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon UPS CDR has a beta of -0.0721. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding UPS CDR are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, UPS CDR is likely to outperform the market. Additionally UPS CDR has an alpha of 0.0255, implying that it can generate a 0.0255 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). UPS CDR Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for UPS CDR
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UPS CDR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.UPS CDR Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UPS CDR is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UPS CDR's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UPS CDR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UPS CDR within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.36 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
UPS CDR Technical Analysis
UPS CDR's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UPS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UPS CDR. In general, you should focus on analyzing UPS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
UPS CDR Predictive Forecast Models
UPS CDR's time-series forecasting models is one of many UPS CDR's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UPS CDR's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards UPS CDR in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, UPS CDR's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from UPS CDR options trading.
Other Information on Investing in UPS Stock
UPS CDR financial ratios help investors to determine whether UPS Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in UPS with respect to the benefits of owning UPS CDR security.