Union Pacific Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 235.03
| UNP Stock | USD 244.66 0.57 0.23% |
Union |
Union Pacific Target Price Odds to finish below 235.03
The tendency of Union Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 235.03 or more in 90 days |
| 244.66 | 90 days | 235.03 | about 12.88 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Union Pacific to drop to $ 235.03 or more in 90 days from now is about 12.88 (This Union Pacific probability density function shows the probability of Union Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Union Pacific price to stay between $ 235.03 and its current price of $244.66 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.75 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.14 . This usually implies Union Pacific market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Union Pacific is expected to follow. Additionally Union Pacific has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Union Pacific Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Union Pacific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Union Pacific. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Union Pacific Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Union Pacific is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Union Pacific's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Union Pacific, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Union Pacific within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Union Pacific Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Union Pacific for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Union Pacific can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Union Pacific generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Union Pacific has 34.18 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.98, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Union Pacific has a current ratio of 0.75, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Union to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 82.0% of Union Pacific outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Union Pacific Corporation Executives to Address UBS Global Industrials Transportation ... |
Union Pacific Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Union Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Union Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Union Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 610.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Union Pacific Technical Analysis
Union Pacific's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Union Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Union Pacific. In general, you should focus on analyzing Union Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Union Pacific Predictive Forecast Models
Union Pacific's time-series forecasting models is one of many Union Pacific's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Union Pacific's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Union Pacific
Checking the ongoing alerts about Union Pacific for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Union Pacific help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Union Pacific generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Union Pacific has 34.18 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.98, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Union Pacific has a current ratio of 0.75, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Union to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 82.0% of Union Pacific outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Union Pacific Corporation Executives to Address UBS Global Industrials Transportation ... |
Additional Tools for Union Stock Analysis
When running Union Pacific's price analysis, check to measure Union Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Union Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of Union Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Union Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Union Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Union Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.