United Microelectronics (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6.93

UMCB Stock   6.35  0.05  0.79%   
United Microelectronics' future price is the expected price of United Microelectronics instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of United Microelectronics Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out United Microelectronics Backtesting, United Microelectronics Valuation, United Microelectronics Correlation, United Microelectronics Hype Analysis, United Microelectronics Volatility, United Microelectronics History as well as United Microelectronics Performance.
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United Microelectronics Target Price Odds to finish below 6.93

The tendency of United Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under  6.93  after 90 days
 6.35 90 days 6.93 
about 40.87
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of United Microelectronics to stay under  6.93  after 90 days from now is about 40.87 (This United Microelectronics Corp probability density function shows the probability of United Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of United Microelectronics price to stay between its current price of  6.35  and  6.93  at the end of the 90-day period is about 31.71 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon United Microelectronics has a beta of 0.37. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, United Microelectronics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding United Microelectronics Corp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally United Microelectronics Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   United Microelectronics Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for United Microelectronics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Microelectronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.346.308.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.706.668.62
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
4.196.168.12
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
6.316.396.46
Details

United Microelectronics Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. United Microelectronics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the United Microelectronics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold United Microelectronics Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of United Microelectronics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.31
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.37
σ
Overall volatility
0.53
Ir
Information ratio -0.19

United Microelectronics Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of United Microelectronics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for United Microelectronics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
United Microelectronics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

United Microelectronics Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of United Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential United Microelectronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Microelectronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding12.5 B
Dividends Paid19.9 B
Short Long Term Debt1.9 B

United Microelectronics Technical Analysis

United Microelectronics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. United Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of United Microelectronics Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing United Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

United Microelectronics Predictive Forecast Models

United Microelectronics' time-series forecasting models is one of many United Microelectronics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary United Microelectronics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about United Microelectronics

Checking the ongoing alerts about United Microelectronics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for United Microelectronics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
United Microelectronics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Additional Tools for United Stock Analysis

When running United Microelectronics' price analysis, check to measure United Microelectronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Microelectronics is operating at the current time. Most of United Microelectronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Microelectronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Microelectronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Microelectronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.