United Fire Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 19.11
| UFCS Stock | USD 30.75 0.16 0.52% |
Closest to current price United long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
United |
United Fire Target Price Odds to finish below 19.11
The tendency of United Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 19.11 or more in 90 days |
| 30.75 | 90 days | 19.11 | about 17.68 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of United Fire to drop to $ 19.11 or more in 90 days from now is about 17.68 (This United Fire Group probability density function shows the probability of United Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of United Fire Group price to stay between $ 19.11 and its current price of $30.75 at the end of the 90-day period is about 78.62 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.52 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, United Fire will likely underperform. Additionally United Fire Group has an alpha of 0.2475, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). United Fire Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for United Fire
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Fire Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Fire's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
United Fire Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. United Fire is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the United Fire's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold United Fire Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of United Fire within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 3.52 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
United Fire Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of United Fire for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for United Fire Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| United Fire Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| United Fire Group currently holds 50 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.06, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. United Fire Group has a current ratio of 0.31, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about United Fire's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.1 B. Net Loss for the year was (29.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 15.27 M. | |
| United Fire Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 66.0% of United Fire outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Is Axis Capital Holdings Stock Undervalued Right Now |
United Fire Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of United Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential United Fire's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Fire's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 102.1 M |
United Fire Technical Analysis
United Fire's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. United Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of United Fire Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing United Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
United Fire Predictive Forecast Models
United Fire's time-series forecasting models is one of many United Fire's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary United Fire's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about United Fire Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about United Fire for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for United Fire Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| United Fire Group appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| United Fire Group currently holds 50 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.06, which may suggest the company is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. United Fire Group has a current ratio of 0.31, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about United Fire's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.1 B. Net Loss for the year was (29.7 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 15.27 M. | |
| United Fire Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 66.0% of United Fire outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Is Axis Capital Holdings Stock Undervalued Right Now |
Additional Tools for United Stock Analysis
When running United Fire's price analysis, check to measure United Fire's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Fire is operating at the current time. Most of United Fire's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Fire's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Fire's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Fire to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.