Union Bank (Sri Lanka) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.28
| UBCN0000 | LKR 11.90 0.50 4.39% |
Union |
Union Bank Target Price Odds to finish over 10.28
The tendency of Union Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 10.28 in 90 days |
| 11.90 | 90 days | 10.28 | about 16.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Union Bank to stay above 10.28 in 90 days from now is about 16.94 (This Union Bank probability density function shows the probability of Union Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Union Bank price to stay between 10.28 and its current price of 11.9 at the end of the 90-day period is about 16.94 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Union Bank has a beta of -0.19. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Union Bank are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Union Bank is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Union Bank has an alpha of 0.4014, implying that it can generate a 0.4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Union Bank Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Union Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Union Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Union Bank Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Union Bank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Union Bank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Union Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Union Bank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.40 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.46 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
Union Bank Technical Analysis
Union Bank's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Union Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Union Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing Union Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Union Bank Predictive Forecast Models
Union Bank's time-series forecasting models is one of many Union Bank's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Union Bank's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Union Bank in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Union Bank's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Union Bank options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Union Stock
Union Bank financial ratios help investors to determine whether Union Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Union with respect to the benefits of owning Union Bank security.