Penske Automotive (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 151.25
| UA9 Stock | 144.00 3.00 2.13% |
Penske |
Penske Automotive Target Price Odds to finish over 151.25
The tendency of Penske Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 151.25 or more in 90 days |
| 144.00 | 90 days | 151.25 | about 22.94 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Penske Automotive to move over 151.25 or more in 90 days from now is about 22.94 (This Penske Automotive Group probability density function shows the probability of Penske Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Penske Automotive price to stay between its current price of 144.00 and 151.25 at the end of the 90-day period is about 39.4 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Penske Automotive has a beta of 0.18. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Penske Automotive average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Penske Automotive Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Penske Automotive Group has an alpha of 0.0362, implying that it can generate a 0.0362 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Penske Automotive Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Penske Automotive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Penske Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Penske Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Penske Automotive Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Penske Automotive is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Penske Automotive's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Penske Automotive Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Penske Automotive within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
Penske Automotive Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Penske Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Penske Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Penske Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 77.6 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -142.5 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 2.6 B |
Penske Automotive Technical Analysis
Penske Automotive's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Penske Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Penske Automotive Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Penske Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Penske Automotive Predictive Forecast Models
Penske Automotive's time-series forecasting models is one of many Penske Automotive's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Penske Automotive's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Penske Automotive in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Penske Automotive's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Penske Automotive options trading.
Additional Tools for Penske Stock Analysis
When running Penske Automotive's price analysis, check to measure Penske Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Penske Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of Penske Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Penske Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Penske Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Penske Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.