Trinseo Sa Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6.27
| TSE Stock | USD 5.51 0.19 3.33% |
Trinseo |
Trinseo SA Target Price Odds to finish below 6.27
The tendency of Trinseo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 6.27 after 90 days |
| 5.51 | 90 days | 6.27 | about 92.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Trinseo SA to stay under $ 6.27 after 90 days from now is about 92.81 (This Trinseo SA probability density function shows the probability of Trinseo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Trinseo SA price to stay between its current price of $ 5.51 and $ 6.27 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.14 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.08 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Trinseo SA will likely underperform. Additionally Trinseo SA has an alpha of 0.6995, implying that it can generate a 0.7 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Trinseo SA Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Trinseo SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trinseo SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trinseo SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Trinseo SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Trinseo SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Trinseo SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Trinseo SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Trinseo SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.70 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 3.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.99 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Trinseo SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Trinseo SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Trinseo SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Trinseo SA is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Trinseo SA appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.68 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (701.3 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 272.3 M. | |
| Trinseo SA has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 24th of October 2024 Trinseo SA paid $ 0.01 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Amendment Notice Concerning Amendments to the Notice Concerning Commencement of Tender Offer for Share Certificates, Etc. of WealthNavi Inc. by MUFG Bank, Ltd. and the Public Notice of Commencement of the Tender Offer in... |
Trinseo SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Trinseo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Trinseo SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trinseo SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 259.1 M |
Trinseo SA Technical Analysis
Trinseo SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Trinseo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Trinseo SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Trinseo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Trinseo SA Predictive Forecast Models
Trinseo SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Trinseo SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Trinseo SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Trinseo SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Trinseo SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Trinseo SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Trinseo SA is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Trinseo SA appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.68 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (701.3 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 272.3 M. | |
| Trinseo SA has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 24th of October 2024 Trinseo SA paid $ 0.01 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Amendment Notice Concerning Amendments to the Notice Concerning Commencement of Tender Offer for Share Certificates, Etc. of WealthNavi Inc. by MUFG Bank, Ltd. and the Public Notice of Commencement of the Tender Offer in... |
Check out Trinseo SA Backtesting, Trinseo SA Valuation, Trinseo SA Correlation, Trinseo SA Hype Analysis, Trinseo SA Volatility, Trinseo SA History as well as Trinseo SA Performance. For information on how to trade Trinseo Stock refer to our How to Trade Trinseo Stock guide.You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Commodity Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trinseo SA. If investors know Trinseo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Trinseo SA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | Dividend Share 0.04 | Earnings Share (13.99) | Revenue Per Share 99.554 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of Trinseo SA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Trinseo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Trinseo SA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Trinseo SA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Trinseo SA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Trinseo SA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trinseo SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trinseo SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Trinseo SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.