Tripadvisor Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 23.42

TRIP Stock  USD 13.86  0.12  0.86%   
TripAdvisor's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on TripAdvisor. Implied volatility approximates the future value of TripAdvisor based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in TripAdvisor over a specific time period. For example, TRIP Option Call 13-12-2024 14 is a CALL option contract on TripAdvisor's common stock with a strick price of 14.0 expiring on 2024-12-13. The contract was last traded on 2024-12-11 at 14:16:57 for $0.15 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.1, and an ask price of $0.2. The implied volatility as of the 11th of December 2024 is 2.0. View All TripAdvisor options

Closest to current price TripAdvisor long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

TripAdvisor's future price is the expected price of TripAdvisor instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of TripAdvisor performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out TripAdvisor Backtesting, TripAdvisor Valuation, TripAdvisor Correlation, TripAdvisor Hype Analysis, TripAdvisor Volatility, TripAdvisor History as well as TripAdvisor Performance.
To learn how to invest in TripAdvisor Stock, please use our How to Invest in TripAdvisor guide.
  
At this time, TripAdvisor's Price Earnings Ratio is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 12/11/2024, Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is likely to grow to 21.18, though Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to grow to (5.84). Please specify TripAdvisor's target price for which you would like TripAdvisor odds to be computed.

TripAdvisor Target Price Odds to finish over 23.42

The tendency of TripAdvisor Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 23.42  or more in 90 days
 13.86 90 days 23.42 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TripAdvisor to move over $ 23.42  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This TripAdvisor probability density function shows the probability of TripAdvisor Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TripAdvisor price to stay between its current price of $ 13.86  and $ 23.42  at the end of the 90-day period is about 81.16 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.69 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, TripAdvisor will likely underperform. Additionally TripAdvisor has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   TripAdvisor Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for TripAdvisor

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TripAdvisor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.2813.8216.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.4216.5719.11
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
12.5115.0517.58
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
16.8818.5520.59
Details

TripAdvisor Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TripAdvisor is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TripAdvisor's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TripAdvisor, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TripAdvisor within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.13
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.69
σ
Overall volatility
0.86
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

TripAdvisor Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of TripAdvisor for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for TripAdvisor can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from express.co.uk: Africas biggest hotel is the length of two football pitches and includes 17 restaurants

TripAdvisor Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of TripAdvisor Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential TripAdvisor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TripAdvisor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding139.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.1 B

TripAdvisor Technical Analysis

TripAdvisor's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TripAdvisor Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TripAdvisor. In general, you should focus on analyzing TripAdvisor Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

TripAdvisor Predictive Forecast Models

TripAdvisor's time-series forecasting models is one of many TripAdvisor's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TripAdvisor's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about TripAdvisor

Checking the ongoing alerts about TripAdvisor for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for TripAdvisor help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from express.co.uk: Africas biggest hotel is the length of two football pitches and includes 17 restaurants

Additional Tools for TripAdvisor Stock Analysis

When running TripAdvisor's price analysis, check to measure TripAdvisor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TripAdvisor is operating at the current time. Most of TripAdvisor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TripAdvisor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TripAdvisor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TripAdvisor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.