PT Cerestar (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 203.87
| TRGU Stock | 204.00 4.00 2.00% |
TRGU |
PT Cerestar Target Price Odds to finish below 203.87
The tendency of TRGU Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 203.87 or more in 90 days |
| 204.00 | 90 days | 203.87 | about 49.11 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of PT Cerestar to drop to 203.87 or more in 90 days from now is about 49.11 (This PT Cerestar Indonesia probability density function shows the probability of TRGU Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of PT Cerestar Indonesia price to stay between 203.87 and its current price of 204.0 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon PT Cerestar Indonesia has a beta of -0.18. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding PT Cerestar are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, PT Cerestar Indonesia is likely to outperform the market. Additionally PT Cerestar Indonesia has an alpha of 0.0413, implying that it can generate a 0.0413 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). PT Cerestar Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for PT Cerestar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PT Cerestar Indonesia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.PT Cerestar Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. PT Cerestar is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the PT Cerestar's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold PT Cerestar Indonesia, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of PT Cerestar within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
PT Cerestar Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of PT Cerestar for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for PT Cerestar Indonesia can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the revenue of 3.42 T. Net Loss for the year was (15.54 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 270.31 B. | |
| PT Cerestar generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 81.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
PT Cerestar Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of TRGU Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential PT Cerestar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. PT Cerestar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
PT Cerestar Technical Analysis
PT Cerestar's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TRGU Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of PT Cerestar Indonesia. In general, you should focus on analyzing TRGU Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
PT Cerestar Predictive Forecast Models
PT Cerestar's time-series forecasting models is one of many PT Cerestar's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary PT Cerestar's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about PT Cerestar Indonesia
Checking the ongoing alerts about PT Cerestar for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for PT Cerestar Indonesia help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the revenue of 3.42 T. Net Loss for the year was (15.54 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 270.31 B. | |
| PT Cerestar generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 81.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in TRGU Stock
PT Cerestar financial ratios help investors to determine whether TRGU Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in TRGU with respect to the benefits of owning PT Cerestar security.