TBS Energi (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 476.36
| TOBA Stock | IDR 482.00 22.00 4.78% |
TBS |
TBS Energi Target Price Odds to finish over 476.36
The tendency of TBS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 476.36 in 90 days |
| 482.00 | 90 days | 476.36 | about 88.16 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TBS Energi to stay above 476.36 in 90 days from now is about 88.16 (This TBS Energi Utama probability density function shows the probability of TBS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TBS Energi Utama price to stay between 476.36 and its current price of 482.0 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.24 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon TBS Energi Utama has a beta of -0.12. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding TBS Energi are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, TBS Energi Utama is likely to outperform the market. Additionally TBS Energi Utama has an alpha of 0.0617, implying that it can generate a 0.0617 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). TBS Energi Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for TBS Energi
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TBS Energi Utama. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TBS Energi Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TBS Energi is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TBS Energi's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TBS Energi Utama, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TBS Energi within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 53.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
TBS Energi Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of TBS Energi for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for TBS Energi Utama can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| TBS Energi Utama generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| TBS Energi Utama has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 89.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
TBS Energi Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of TBS Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential TBS Energi's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TBS Energi's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 68.8 M |
TBS Energi Technical Analysis
TBS Energi's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TBS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TBS Energi Utama. In general, you should focus on analyzing TBS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
TBS Energi Predictive Forecast Models
TBS Energi's time-series forecasting models is one of many TBS Energi's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TBS Energi's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about TBS Energi Utama
Checking the ongoing alerts about TBS Energi for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for TBS Energi Utama help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| TBS Energi Utama generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| TBS Energi Utama has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 89.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in TBS Stock
TBS Energi financial ratios help investors to determine whether TBS Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in TBS with respect to the benefits of owning TBS Energi security.