TELEKOM NETWORK (Malawi) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 25.48
| TNM Stock | 24.00 0.98 3.92% |
TELEKOM |
TELEKOM NETWORK Target Price Odds to finish over 25.48
The tendency of TELEKOM Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 25.48 or more in 90 days |
| 24.00 | 90 days | 25.48 | about 27.48 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of TELEKOM NETWORK to move over 25.48 or more in 90 days from now is about 27.48 (This TELEKOM NETWORK MALAWI probability density function shows the probability of TELEKOM Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of TELEKOM NETWORK MALAWI price to stay between its current price of 24.00 and 25.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 21.44 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon TELEKOM NETWORK has a beta of 0.19. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, TELEKOM NETWORK average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding TELEKOM NETWORK MALAWI will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally TELEKOM NETWORK MALAWI has an alpha of 0.3586, implying that it can generate a 0.36 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). TELEKOM NETWORK Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for TELEKOM NETWORK
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TELEKOM NETWORK MALAWI. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TELEKOM NETWORK Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. TELEKOM NETWORK is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the TELEKOM NETWORK's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold TELEKOM NETWORK MALAWI, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of TELEKOM NETWORK within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.36 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.59 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.24 |
TELEKOM NETWORK Technical Analysis
TELEKOM NETWORK's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. TELEKOM Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of TELEKOM NETWORK MALAWI. In general, you should focus on analyzing TELEKOM Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
TELEKOM NETWORK Predictive Forecast Models
TELEKOM NETWORK's time-series forecasting models is one of many TELEKOM NETWORK's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary TELEKOM NETWORK's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards TELEKOM NETWORK in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, TELEKOM NETWORK's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from TELEKOM NETWORK options trading.