Travel Leisure Co Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 42.20
| TNL Stock | USD 51.16 0.61 1.21% |
Travel |
Travel Leisure Target Price Odds to finish below 42.20
The tendency of Travel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 42.20 or more in 90 days |
| 51.16 | 90 days | 42.20 | about 1.97 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Travel Leisure to drop to $ 42.20 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.97 (This Travel Leisure Co probability density function shows the probability of Travel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Travel Leisure price to stay between $ 42.20 and its current price of $51.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 61.29 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.28 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Travel Leisure will likely underperform. Additionally Travel Leisure Co has an alpha of 0.1662, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Travel Leisure Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Travel Leisure
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Travel Leisure. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Travel Leisure Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Travel Leisure is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Travel Leisure's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Travel Leisure Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Travel Leisure within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Travel Leisure Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Travel Leisure for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Travel Leisure can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: TravelLeisure Co Announces CFO Mike Hugs Retirement |
Travel Leisure Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Travel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Travel Leisure's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Travel Leisure's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 75 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 314 M |
Travel Leisure Technical Analysis
Travel Leisure's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Travel Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Travel Leisure Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Travel Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Travel Leisure Predictive Forecast Models
Travel Leisure's time-series forecasting models is one of many Travel Leisure's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Travel Leisure's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Travel Leisure
Checking the ongoing alerts about Travel Leisure for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Travel Leisure help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: TravelLeisure Co Announces CFO Mike Hugs Retirement |
Check out Travel Leisure Backtesting, Travel Leisure Valuation, Travel Leisure Correlation, Travel Leisure Hype Analysis, Travel Leisure Volatility, Travel Leisure History as well as Travel Leisure Performance. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Travel Leisure. If investors know Travel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Travel Leisure listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Dividend Share 1.95 | Earnings Share 5.41 | Revenue Per Share 53.892 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.007 |
The market value of Travel Leisure is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Travel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Travel Leisure's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Travel Leisure's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Travel Leisure's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Travel Leisure's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Travel Leisure's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Travel Leisure is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Travel Leisure's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.