Treace Medical Concepts Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.29
| TMCI Stock | USD 6.96 0.06 0.87% |
Treace |
Treace Medical Target Price Odds to finish below 5.29
The tendency of Treace Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 5.29 or more in 90 days |
| 6.96 | 90 days | 5.29 | about 18.23 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Treace Medical to drop to $ 5.29 or more in 90 days from now is about 18.23 (This Treace Medical Concepts probability density function shows the probability of Treace Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Treace Medical Concepts price to stay between $ 5.29 and its current price of $6.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 44.39 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 4.44 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Treace Medical will likely underperform. Additionally Treace Medical Concepts has an alpha of 0.3533, implying that it can generate a 0.35 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Treace Medical Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Treace Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Treace Medical Concepts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Treace Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Treace Medical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Treace Medical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Treace Medical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Treace Medical Concepts, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Treace Medical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 4.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.36 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Treace Medical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Treace Medical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Treace Medical Concepts can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Treace Medical is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Treace Medical appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 187.12 M. Net Loss for the year was (49.53 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 114.31 M. | |
| Treace Medical Concepts currently holds about 101.53 M in cash with (34.58 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.83. | |
| Treace Medical has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 64.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Treace Medical price target raised to 8.40 from 7 at Truist |
Treace Medical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Treace Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Treace Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Treace Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 60.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 123.2 M |
Treace Medical Technical Analysis
Treace Medical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Treace Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Treace Medical Concepts. In general, you should focus on analyzing Treace Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Treace Medical Predictive Forecast Models
Treace Medical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Treace Medical's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Treace Medical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Treace Medical Concepts
Checking the ongoing alerts about Treace Medical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Treace Medical Concepts help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Treace Medical is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Treace Medical appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 187.12 M. Net Loss for the year was (49.53 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 114.31 M. | |
| Treace Medical Concepts currently holds about 101.53 M in cash with (34.58 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.83. | |
| Treace Medical has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 64.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Treace Medical price target raised to 8.40 from 7 at Truist |
Check out Treace Medical Backtesting, Treace Medical Valuation, Treace Medical Correlation, Treace Medical Hype Analysis, Treace Medical Volatility, Treace Medical History as well as Treace Medical Performance. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Treace Medical. If investors know Treace will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Treace Medical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.99) | Revenue Per Share 3.274 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.106 | Return On Assets (0.17) | Return On Equity (0.51) |
The market value of Treace Medical Concepts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Treace that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Treace Medical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Treace Medical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Treace Medical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Treace Medical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Treace Medical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Treace Medical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Treace Medical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.