Thungela Resources (South Africa) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 13,402
| TGA Stock | 13,345 462.00 3.59% |
Thungela |
Thungela Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 13,402
The tendency of Thungela Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 13,345 | 90 days | 13,345 | about 84.04 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Thungela Resources to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 84.04 (This Thungela Resources Limited probability density function shows the probability of Thungela Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Thungela Resources Limited has a beta of -0.0293. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Thungela Resources are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Thungela Resources Limited is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Thungela Resources Limited has an alpha of 0.3833, implying that it can generate a 0.38 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Thungela Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Thungela Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thungela Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Thungela Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Thungela Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Thungela Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Thungela Resources Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Thungela Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 880.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.18 |
Thungela Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Thungela Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Thungela Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Thungela Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 136.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.8 B |
Thungela Resources Technical Analysis
Thungela Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Thungela Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Thungela Resources Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Thungela Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Thungela Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Thungela Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Thungela Resources' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Thungela Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Thungela Resources in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Thungela Resources' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Thungela Resources options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Thungela Stock
Thungela Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thungela Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thungela with respect to the benefits of owning Thungela Resources security.