Cirtek Holdings (Philippines) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 45.10
| TCB2D Stock | 46.10 2.55 5.86% |
Cirtek |
Cirtek Holdings Target Price Odds to finish below 45.10
The tendency of Cirtek Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 45.10 or more in 90 days |
| 46.10 | 90 days | 45.10 | about 1.87 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cirtek Holdings to drop to 45.10 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.87 (This Cirtek Holdings Philippines probability density function shows the probability of Cirtek Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cirtek Holdings Phil price to stay between 45.10 and its current price of 46.1 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.95 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Cirtek Holdings Philippines has a beta of -0.65. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Cirtek Holdings are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Cirtek Holdings Philippines is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Cirtek Holdings Philippines has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Cirtek Holdings Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Cirtek Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cirtek Holdings Phil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cirtek Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cirtek Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cirtek Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cirtek Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cirtek Holdings Philippines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cirtek Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.52 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Cirtek Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cirtek Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cirtek Holdings Phil can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Cirtek Holdings Phil generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cirtek Holdings generates negative cash flow from operations |
Cirtek Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cirtek Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cirtek Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cirtek Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividends Paid | 4.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 31.8 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt Total | 50.5 M |
Cirtek Holdings Technical Analysis
Cirtek Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cirtek Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cirtek Holdings Philippines. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cirtek Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Cirtek Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Cirtek Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Cirtek Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Cirtek Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Cirtek Holdings Phil
Checking the ongoing alerts about Cirtek Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cirtek Holdings Phil help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Cirtek Holdings Phil generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Cirtek Holdings generates negative cash flow from operations |
Additional Tools for Cirtek Stock Analysis
When running Cirtek Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Cirtek Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cirtek Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Cirtek Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cirtek Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cirtek Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cirtek Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.