Suncor Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 30.54
| SU Stock | USD 35.26 0.10 0.28% |
Suncor |
Suncor Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 30.54
The tendency of Suncor Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 30.54 or more in 90 days |
| 35.26 | 90 days | 30.54 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Suncor Energy to drop to $ 30.54 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Suncor Energy probability density function shows the probability of Suncor Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Suncor Energy price to stay between $ 30.54 and its current price of $35.26 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.93 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Suncor Energy has a beta of 0.16. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Suncor Energy average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Suncor Energy will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Suncor Energy has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Suncor Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Suncor Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Suncor Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Suncor Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Suncor Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Suncor Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Suncor Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Suncor Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Suncor Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Suncor Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Suncor Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Suncor Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Suncor Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Suncor Energy Stock Rises 10 percent Year to Date Time to Buy or Hold |
Suncor Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Suncor Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Suncor Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Suncor Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
Suncor Energy Technical Analysis
Suncor Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Suncor Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Suncor Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Suncor Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Suncor Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Suncor Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Suncor Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Suncor Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Suncor Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Suncor Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Suncor Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Suncor Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Suncor Energy Stock Rises 10 percent Year to Date Time to Buy or Hold |
Additional Tools for Suncor Stock Analysis
When running Suncor Energy's price analysis, check to measure Suncor Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Suncor Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Suncor Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Suncor Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Suncor Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Suncor Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.