Sprucegrove International Equity Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 66.85
| SPRDX Fund | USD 66.09 0.17 0.26% |
Sprucegrove |
Sprucegrove International Target Price Odds to finish below 66.85
The tendency of Sprucegrove Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 66.85 after 90 days |
| 66.09 | 90 days | 66.85 | about 6.73 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sprucegrove International to stay under $ 66.85 after 90 days from now is about 6.73 (This Sprucegrove International Equity probability density function shows the probability of Sprucegrove Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sprucegrove International price to stay between its current price of $ 66.09 and $ 66.85 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.87 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Sprucegrove International has a beta of 0.26. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Sprucegrove International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Sprucegrove International Equity will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Sprucegrove International Equity has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Sprucegrove International Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Sprucegrove International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sprucegrove International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sprucegrove International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Sprucegrove International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sprucegrove International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sprucegrove International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sprucegrove International Equity, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sprucegrove International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.84 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.23 |
Sprucegrove International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Sprucegrove International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Sprucegrove International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Sprucegrove International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund maintains about 7.43% of its assets in cash |
Sprucegrove International Technical Analysis
Sprucegrove International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sprucegrove Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sprucegrove International Equity. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sprucegrove Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Sprucegrove International Predictive Forecast Models
Sprucegrove International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Sprucegrove International's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sprucegrove International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Sprucegrove International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Sprucegrove International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Sprucegrove International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Sprucegrove International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund maintains about 7.43% of its assets in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Sprucegrove Mutual Fund
Sprucegrove International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sprucegrove Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sprucegrove with respect to the benefits of owning Sprucegrove International security.
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