Smith Micro Software Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.93
| SMSI Stock | USD 0.86 0.03 3.61% |
Smith |
Smith Micro Target Price Odds to finish below 0.93
The tendency of Smith Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 0.93 after 90 days |
| 0.86 | 90 days | 0.93 | about 68.01 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Smith Micro to stay under $ 0.93 after 90 days from now is about 68.01 (This Smith Micro Software probability density function shows the probability of Smith Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Smith Micro Software price to stay between its current price of $ 0.86 and $ 0.93 at the end of the 90-day period is about 15.76 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Smith Micro Software has a beta of -1.81. This usually implies as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Smith Micro Software are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Smith Micro is expected to outperform its benchmark. Moreover Smith Micro Software has an alpha of 1.3699, implying that it can generate a 1.37 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Smith Micro Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Smith Micro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smith Micro Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Smith Micro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Smith Micro Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Smith Micro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Smith Micro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Smith Micro Software, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Smith Micro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -1.81 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Smith Micro Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Smith Micro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Smith Micro Software can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Smith Micro Software is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Smith Micro Software has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Smith Micro Software appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Smith Micro Software has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 40.86 M. Net Loss for the year was (24.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 34.3 M. | |
| Smith Micro Software currently holds about 5.36 M in cash with (6.97 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.1. | |
| Smith Micro Software has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Smith Micro Software faces Nasdaq delisting over share price |
Smith Micro Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Smith Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Smith Micro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Smith Micro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.1 M |
Smith Micro Technical Analysis
Smith Micro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Smith Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Smith Micro Software. In general, you should focus on analyzing Smith Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Smith Micro Predictive Forecast Models
Smith Micro's time-series forecasting models is one of many Smith Micro's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Smith Micro's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Smith Micro Software
Checking the ongoing alerts about Smith Micro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Smith Micro Software help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Smith Micro Software is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Smith Micro Software has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Smith Micro Software appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Smith Micro Software has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 40.86 M. Net Loss for the year was (24.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 34.3 M. | |
| Smith Micro Software currently holds about 5.36 M in cash with (6.97 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.1. | |
| Smith Micro Software has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Smith Micro Software faces Nasdaq delisting over share price |
Check out Smith Micro Backtesting, Smith Micro Valuation, Smith Micro Correlation, Smith Micro Hype Analysis, Smith Micro Volatility, Smith Micro History as well as Smith Micro Performance. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Smith Micro. If investors know Smith will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Smith Micro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.84) | Earnings Share (4.94) | Revenue Per Share 3.252 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.50) | Return On Assets (0.19) |
The market value of Smith Micro Software is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Smith that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Smith Micro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Smith Micro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Smith Micro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Smith Micro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Smith Micro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Smith Micro is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Smith Micro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.