Grupo Simec (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 184.24
| SIMECB Stock | MXN 184.29 0.21 0.11% |
Grupo |
Grupo Simec Target Price Odds to finish below 184.24
The tendency of Grupo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 184.24 or more in 90 days |
| 184.29 | 90 days | 184.24 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Grupo Simec to drop to 184.24 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Grupo Simec SAB probability density function shows the probability of Grupo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Grupo Simec SAB price to stay between 184.24 and its current price of 184.29 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Grupo Simec SAB has a beta of -0.026. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Grupo Simec are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Grupo Simec SAB is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Grupo Simec SAB has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Grupo Simec Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Grupo Simec
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Simec SAB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grupo Simec's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Grupo Simec Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Grupo Simec is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Grupo Simec's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Grupo Simec SAB, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Grupo Simec within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.65 |
Grupo Simec Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Grupo Simec for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Grupo Simec SAB can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Grupo Simec SAB generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 78.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Grupo Simec Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Grupo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Grupo Simec's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grupo Simec's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 462.6 M |
Grupo Simec Technical Analysis
Grupo Simec's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Grupo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Grupo Simec SAB. In general, you should focus on analyzing Grupo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Grupo Simec Predictive Forecast Models
Grupo Simec's time-series forecasting models is one of many Grupo Simec's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Grupo Simec's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Grupo Simec SAB
Checking the ongoing alerts about Grupo Simec for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Grupo Simec SAB help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Grupo Simec SAB generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 78.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Grupo Stock
When determining whether Grupo Simec SAB is a strong investment it is important to analyze Grupo Simec's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Grupo Simec's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Grupo Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Grupo Simec Backtesting, Grupo Simec Valuation, Grupo Simec Correlation, Grupo Simec Hype Analysis, Grupo Simec Volatility, Grupo Simec History as well as Grupo Simec Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.