SERENDIB HOTELS (Sri Lanka) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.49
| SHOTX0000 | LKR 12.50 0.10 0.79% |
SERENDIB |
SERENDIB HOTELS Target Price Odds to finish below 9.49
The tendency of SERENDIB Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 9.49 or more in 90 days |
| 12.50 | 90 days | 9.49 | about 25.39 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of SERENDIB HOTELS to drop to 9.49 or more in 90 days from now is about 25.39 (This SERENDIB HOTELS PLC probability density function shows the probability of SERENDIB Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of SERENDIB HOTELS PLC price to stay between 9.49 and its current price of 12.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 68.11 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon SERENDIB HOTELS PLC has a beta of -0.57. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding SERENDIB HOTELS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, SERENDIB HOTELS PLC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally SERENDIB HOTELS PLC has an alpha of 0.592, implying that it can generate a 0.59 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). SERENDIB HOTELS Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for SERENDIB HOTELS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SERENDIB HOTELS PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SERENDIB HOTELS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
SERENDIB HOTELS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. SERENDIB HOTELS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the SERENDIB HOTELS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold SERENDIB HOTELS PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of SERENDIB HOTELS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.59 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.57 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
SERENDIB HOTELS Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of SERENDIB HOTELS for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for SERENDIB HOTELS PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| SERENDIB HOTELS PLC appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
SERENDIB HOTELS Technical Analysis
SERENDIB HOTELS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. SERENDIB Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of SERENDIB HOTELS PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing SERENDIB Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
SERENDIB HOTELS Predictive Forecast Models
SERENDIB HOTELS's time-series forecasting models is one of many SERENDIB HOTELS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary SERENDIB HOTELS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about SERENDIB HOTELS PLC
Checking the ongoing alerts about SERENDIB HOTELS for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for SERENDIB HOTELS PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| SERENDIB HOTELS PLC appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
Other Information on Investing in SERENDIB Stock
SERENDIB HOTELS financial ratios help investors to determine whether SERENDIB Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in SERENDIB with respect to the benefits of owning SERENDIB HOTELS security.