STMICROELECTRONICS (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.36
| SGM Stock | EUR 23.44 0.53 2.21% |
STMICROELECTRONICS |
STMICROELECTRONICS Target Price Odds to finish below 18.36
The tendency of STMICROELECTRONICS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 18.36 or more in 90 days |
| 23.44 | 90 days | 18.36 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of STMICROELECTRONICS to drop to € 18.36 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This STMICROELECTRONICS probability density function shows the probability of STMICROELECTRONICS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of STMICROELECTRONICS price to stay between € 18.36 and its current price of €23.44 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon STMICROELECTRONICS has a beta of 0.19. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, STMICROELECTRONICS average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding STMICROELECTRONICS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally STMICROELECTRONICS has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. STMICROELECTRONICS Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for STMICROELECTRONICS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as STMICROELECTRONICS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.STMICROELECTRONICS Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. STMICROELECTRONICS is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the STMICROELECTRONICS's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold STMICROELECTRONICS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of STMICROELECTRONICS within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.83 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
STMICROELECTRONICS Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of STMICROELECTRONICS for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for STMICROELECTRONICS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| STMICROELECTRONICS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
STMICROELECTRONICS Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of STMICROELECTRONICS Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential STMICROELECTRONICS's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. STMICROELECTRONICS's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 903.9 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 212 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 175 M |
STMICROELECTRONICS Technical Analysis
STMICROELECTRONICS's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. STMICROELECTRONICS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of STMICROELECTRONICS. In general, you should focus on analyzing STMICROELECTRONICS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
STMICROELECTRONICS Predictive Forecast Models
STMICROELECTRONICS's time-series forecasting models is one of many STMICROELECTRONICS's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary STMICROELECTRONICS's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about STMICROELECTRONICS
Checking the ongoing alerts about STMICROELECTRONICS for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for STMICROELECTRONICS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| STMICROELECTRONICS generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Other Information on Investing in STMICROELECTRONICS Stock
STMICROELECTRONICS financial ratios help investors to determine whether STMICROELECTRONICS Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in STMICROELECTRONICS with respect to the benefits of owning STMICROELECTRONICS security.