Semperit Aktiengesellscha (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.87
| SEW Stock | EUR 13.80 0.18 1.29% |
Semperit |
Semperit Aktiengesellscha Target Price Odds to finish below 11.87
The tendency of Semperit Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 11.87 or more in 90 days |
| 13.80 | 90 days | 11.87 | about 7.31 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Semperit Aktiengesellscha to drop to € 11.87 or more in 90 days from now is about 7.31 (This Semperit Aktiengesellschaft Holding probability density function shows the probability of Semperit Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Semperit Aktiengesellscha price to stay between € 11.87 and its current price of €13.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 62.49 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Semperit Aktiengesellscha has a beta of 0.0915. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Semperit Aktiengesellscha average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Semperit Aktiengesellschaft Holding will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Semperit Aktiengesellschaft Holding has an alpha of 0.2746, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Semperit Aktiengesellscha Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Semperit Aktiengesellscha
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Semperit Aktiengesellscha. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Semperit Aktiengesellscha Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Semperit Aktiengesellscha is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Semperit Aktiengesellscha's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Semperit Aktiengesellschaft Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Semperit Aktiengesellscha within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.98 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.38 |
Semperit Aktiengesellscha Technical Analysis
Semperit Aktiengesellscha's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Semperit Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Semperit Aktiengesellschaft Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Semperit Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Semperit Aktiengesellscha Predictive Forecast Models
Semperit Aktiengesellscha's time-series forecasting models is one of many Semperit Aktiengesellscha's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Semperit Aktiengesellscha's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Semperit Aktiengesellscha in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Semperit Aktiengesellscha's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Semperit Aktiengesellscha options trading.
Additional Tools for Semperit Stock Analysis
When running Semperit Aktiengesellscha's price analysis, check to measure Semperit Aktiengesellscha's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Semperit Aktiengesellscha is operating at the current time. Most of Semperit Aktiengesellscha's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Semperit Aktiengesellscha's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Semperit Aktiengesellscha's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Semperit Aktiengesellscha to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.