Redwood Trust Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 7.27
| RWT Stock | USD 6.97 0.02 0.29% |
Redwood |
Redwood Trust Target Price Odds to finish below 7.27
The tendency of Redwood Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 7.27 after 90 days |
| 6.97 | 90 days | 7.27 | about 29.93 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Redwood Trust to stay under $ 7.27 after 90 days from now is about 29.93 (This Redwood Trust probability density function shows the probability of Redwood Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Redwood Trust price to stay between its current price of $ 6.97 and $ 7.27 at the end of the 90-day period is about 25.04 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Redwood Trust has a beta of 0.61 indicating as returns on the market go up, Redwood Trust average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Redwood Trust will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Redwood Trust has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Redwood Trust Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Redwood Trust
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Redwood Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Redwood Trust's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Redwood Trust Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Redwood Trust is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Redwood Trust's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Redwood Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Redwood Trust within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.61 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.27 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Redwood Trust Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Redwood Trust for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Redwood Trust can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Redwood Trust generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Redwood Trust has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 158.3 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (6.27 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (27.55 M). | |
| Redwood Trust has about 258.89 M in cash with (2.02 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.64. | |
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Redwood Trust, Inc. Shares Bought by Wellington Management Group LLP |
Redwood Trust Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Redwood Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Redwood Trust's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Redwood Trust's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 116.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 368.8 M |
Redwood Trust Technical Analysis
Redwood Trust's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Redwood Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Redwood Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Redwood Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Redwood Trust Predictive Forecast Models
Redwood Trust's time-series forecasting models is one of many Redwood Trust's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Redwood Trust's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Redwood Trust
Checking the ongoing alerts about Redwood Trust for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Redwood Trust help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Redwood Trust generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Redwood Trust has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 158.3 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (6.27 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (27.55 M). | |
| Redwood Trust has about 258.89 M in cash with (2.02 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.64. | |
| Over 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Redwood Trust, Inc. Shares Bought by Wellington Management Group LLP |
Additional Tools for Redwood Stock Analysis
When running Redwood Trust's price analysis, check to measure Redwood Trust's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Redwood Trust is operating at the current time. Most of Redwood Trust's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Redwood Trust's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Redwood Trust's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Redwood Trust to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.