UPM-Kymmene Oyj (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 26.28
| RPL Stock | EUR 27.97 0.30 1.06% |
UPM-Kymmene |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Target Price Odds to finish below 26.28
The tendency of UPM-Kymmene Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 26.28 or more in 90 days |
| 27.97 | 90 days | 26.28 | about 24.37 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UPM-Kymmene Oyj to drop to € 26.28 or more in 90 days from now is about 24.37 (This UPM Kymmene Oyj probability density function shows the probability of UPM-Kymmene Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UPM Kymmene Oyj price to stay between € 26.28 and its current price of €27.97 at the end of the 90-day period is about 50.09 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon UPM-Kymmene Oyj has a beta of 0.4 indicating as returns on the market go up, UPM-Kymmene Oyj average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding UPM Kymmene Oyj will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally UPM Kymmene Oyj has an alpha of 0.1888, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). UPM-Kymmene Oyj Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for UPM-Kymmene Oyj
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UPM Kymmene Oyj. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.UPM-Kymmene Oyj Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UPM-Kymmene Oyj is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UPM-Kymmene Oyj's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UPM Kymmene Oyj, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UPM-Kymmene Oyj within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.40 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.17 |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UPM-Kymmene Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UPM-Kymmene Oyj's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UPM-Kymmene Oyj's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 533.3 M |
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Technical Analysis
UPM-Kymmene Oyj's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UPM-Kymmene Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UPM Kymmene Oyj. In general, you should focus on analyzing UPM-Kymmene Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
UPM-Kymmene Oyj Predictive Forecast Models
UPM-Kymmene Oyj's time-series forecasting models is one of many UPM-Kymmene Oyj's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UPM-Kymmene Oyj's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards UPM-Kymmene Oyj in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, UPM-Kymmene Oyj's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from UPM-Kymmene Oyj options trading.
Other Information on Investing in UPM-Kymmene Stock
UPM-Kymmene Oyj financial ratios help investors to determine whether UPM-Kymmene Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in UPM-Kymmene with respect to the benefits of owning UPM-Kymmene Oyj security.