Transocean (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 23.04
| RIGG34 Stock | BRL 22.48 0.72 3.10% |
Transocean |
Transocean Target Price Odds to finish below 23.04
The tendency of Transocean Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under R$ 23.04 after 90 days |
| 22.48 | 90 days | 23.04 | about 9.52 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Transocean to stay under R$ 23.04 after 90 days from now is about 9.52 (This Transocean probability density function shows the probability of Transocean Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Transocean price to stay between its current price of R$ 22.48 and R$ 23.04 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.72 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Transocean has a beta of 0.39 indicating as returns on the market go up, Transocean average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Transocean will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Transocean has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Transocean Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Transocean
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Transocean. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Transocean Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Transocean is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Transocean's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Transocean, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Transocean within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Transocean Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Transocean for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Transocean can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Transocean generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Transocean has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Transocean has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 2.56 B. Net Loss for the year was (592 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 871 M. |
Transocean Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Transocean Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Transocean's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Transocean's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 655.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 976 M |
Transocean Technical Analysis
Transocean's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Transocean Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Transocean. In general, you should focus on analyzing Transocean Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Transocean Predictive Forecast Models
Transocean's time-series forecasting models is one of many Transocean's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Transocean's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Transocean
Checking the ongoing alerts about Transocean for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Transocean help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Transocean generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Transocean has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Transocean has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the revenue of 2.56 B. Net Loss for the year was (592 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 871 M. |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Transocean Stock
When determining whether Transocean is a strong investment it is important to analyze Transocean's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Transocean's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Transocean Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Transocean Backtesting, Transocean Valuation, Transocean Correlation, Transocean Hype Analysis, Transocean Volatility, Transocean History as well as Transocean Performance. For information on how to trade Transocean Stock refer to our How to Trade Transocean Stock guide.You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .