Refex Industries (India) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 427.85
| REFEX Stock | 494.20 23.50 4.99% |
Refex |
Refex Industries Target Price Odds to finish below 427.85
The tendency of Refex Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 427.85 or more in 90 days |
| 494.20 | 90 days | 427.85 | about 26.04 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Refex Industries to drop to 427.85 or more in 90 days from now is about 26.04 (This Refex Industries Limited probability density function shows the probability of Refex Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Refex Industries price to stay between 427.85 and its current price of 494.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.19 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Refex Industries has a beta of 0.36 indicating as returns on the market go up, Refex Industries average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Refex Industries Limited will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Refex Industries Limited has an alpha of 0.7069, implying that it can generate a 0.71 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Refex Industries Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Refex Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Refex Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Refex Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Refex Industries Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Refex Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Refex Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Refex Industries Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Refex Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.71 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 60.97 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
Refex Industries Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Refex Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Refex Industries can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Refex Industries appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Refex Industries is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 59.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Refex Industries Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Refex Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Refex Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Refex Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 111.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 647.8 M |
Refex Industries Technical Analysis
Refex Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Refex Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Refex Industries Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Refex Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Refex Industries Predictive Forecast Models
Refex Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many Refex Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Refex Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Refex Industries
Checking the ongoing alerts about Refex Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Refex Industries help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Refex Industries appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Refex Industries is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 59.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Refex Stock
Refex Industries financial ratios help investors to determine whether Refex Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Refex with respect to the benefits of owning Refex Industries security.