Citrus Leisure (Sri Lanka) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 7.18
| REEFN0000 | LKR 4.40 0.10 2.22% |
Citrus |
Citrus Leisure Target Price Odds to finish over 7.18
The tendency of Citrus Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 7.18 or more in 90 days |
| 4.40 | 90 days | 7.18 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Citrus Leisure to move over 7.18 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Citrus Leisure PLC probability density function shows the probability of Citrus Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Citrus Leisure PLC price to stay between its current price of 4.40 and 7.18 at the end of the 90-day period is about 71.93 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Citrus Leisure PLC has a beta of -0.0665 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Citrus Leisure are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Citrus Leisure PLC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Citrus Leisure PLC has an alpha of 0.038, implying that it can generate a 0.038 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Citrus Leisure Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Citrus Leisure
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Citrus Leisure PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Citrus Leisure Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Citrus Leisure is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Citrus Leisure's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Citrus Leisure PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Citrus Leisure within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.07 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.31 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Citrus Leisure Technical Analysis
Citrus Leisure's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Citrus Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Citrus Leisure PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Citrus Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Citrus Leisure Predictive Forecast Models
Citrus Leisure's time-series forecasting models is one of many Citrus Leisure's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Citrus Leisure's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Citrus Leisure in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Citrus Leisure's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Citrus Leisure options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Citrus Stock
Citrus Leisure financial ratios help investors to determine whether Citrus Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Citrus with respect to the benefits of owning Citrus Leisure security.