Avita Medical Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.46
| RCEL Stock | USD 12.80 0.41 3.10% |
Avita |
Avita Medical Target Price Odds to finish over 10.46
The tendency of Avita Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 10.46 in 90 days |
| 12.80 | 90 days | 10.46 | about 86.47 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Avita Medical to stay above $ 10.46 in 90 days from now is about 86.47 (This Avita Medical probability density function shows the probability of Avita Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Avita Medical price to stay between $ 10.46 and its current price of $12.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 67.56 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Avita Medical has a beta of 0.13 indicating as returns on the market go up, Avita Medical average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Avita Medical will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Avita Medical has an alpha of 0.3076, implying that it can generate a 0.31 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Avita Medical Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Avita Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avita Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avita Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Avita Medical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Avita Medical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Avita Medical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Avita Medical, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Avita Medical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.31 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.13 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.18 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
Avita Medical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Avita Medical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Avita Medical can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Avita Medical had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Avita Medical has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 50.14 M. Net Loss for the year was (35.38 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 28.38 M. | |
| Avita Medical currently holds about 84.17 M in cash with (38.01 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.67. | |
| Avita Medical has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Is AVITA Medical Using Debt Sensibly |
Avita Medical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Avita Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Avita Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avita Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.7 M |
Avita Medical Technical Analysis
Avita Medical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Avita Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Avita Medical. In general, you should focus on analyzing Avita Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.