Legg Mason Partners Fund Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 23.49
| QLMETX Fund | USD 24.60 0.01 0.04% |
Legg |
Legg Mason Target Price Odds to finish below 23.49
The tendency of Legg Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 23.49 or more in 90 days |
| 24.60 | 90 days | 23.49 | about 43.04 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Legg Mason to drop to $ 23.49 or more in 90 days from now is about 43.04 (This Legg Mason Partners probability density function shows the probability of Legg Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Legg Mason Partners price to stay between $ 23.49 and its current price of $24.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 53.31 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Legg Mason Partners has a beta of -0.0038 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Legg Mason are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Legg Mason Partners is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Legg Mason Partners has an alpha of 0.1075, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Legg Mason Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Legg Mason
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Legg Mason Partners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Legg Mason's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Legg Mason Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Legg Mason is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Legg Mason's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Legg Mason Partners, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Legg Mason within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0038 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.55 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Legg Mason Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Legg Fund often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Legg Mason's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Legg Mason's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Legg Mason Technical Analysis
Legg Mason's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Legg Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Legg Mason Partners. In general, you should focus on analyzing Legg Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Legg Mason Predictive Forecast Models
Legg Mason's time-series forecasting models is one of many Legg Mason's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Legg Mason's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Legg Mason in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Legg Mason's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Legg Mason options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Legg Fund
Legg Mason financial ratios help investors to determine whether Legg Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Legg with respect to the benefits of owning Legg Mason security.
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